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Calpine Corporation: The Evolution from Project to Corporate Finance

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Submitted by:                                                                                                     Submitted to:

Group 2- Disha Singh, Mahesh Tekade and Shraddha Sawaika                                 Prof. P. Saravanan

PGP Mumbai II, AY 2017-18                                         Course Instructor: Project Appraisal and Financing

Brief Case Analysis                                                                                        08 November, 2017

Calpine Corporation: The Evolution from Project to Corporate Finance

Ques 1- What are the most significant risks of taking up this project?

Answer Calpine is changing its strategy dramatically, going towards being proactive for making Re-powering America. The new structure will require company to reduce the cost in all aspects in their value chain. Their aggressive strategy success totally depends on being able to construct and also manage new power plants of more than 15000 Megawatts. This seems to be difficult task as they are not yet experts in market power and natural gas in geographically market like America, which is diversified power markets also they have supply side constraints of cycle gas turbines. Calpine faces a technology risk as they have to go through to develop efficient ways of generating energy which are also environmentally – friendly.

Also their strategy is to stop new entrant in power sector which led to excessive expenditure by the company. The bond of the company is rated as BB and they will need approval of 20 banks for revolving credit facility, and there are certain terms and condition of banks which they have to adhere diligently.

Calpine also have to adhere to legislative provisions such as PURPA, 1978 and NEPA, 1992 and other state regulations.

Other risk associated are risk with the industry and product, electricity is one product that cannot be stored hence they need continuous production capacity and also fixed cost are high.

 


Ques 2- How big are the potential returns?    

Table 1. Assumptions

Key Assumptions

 

4 plants with same output capacity

 

Output in MW

1000

(Capacity factor) Availability

90%

Market price of electricity ($/MWh)

 

1999

 $            31.00

2009

 $            24.00

No of hours

8760.00

 

 

Gas price ($/MBtu)

2.2

Plant heat rate (Btu/kWh)

7500

Implied fuel cost ($/MWh)

16.5

O&M expense ($/MWh)

3.5

 

 

 

 

Capital costs

   5000,00,000

Years to construct

2

Depreciable life

30

Debt to capitalization ratio

65%

Pre-tax cost of debt

7.75%

Tax rate

38%

Inflation rate

2%

Table 2. Calculation of WACC

WACC

 

 

Beta

0.6

(exhibit 6a)

Risk free Rate

5.66%

(Exhibit 6a)

Risk premium

6%

 

Return on equity

9.2600%

 

Return on debt

4.81%

 

 

 

 

Equity

35.00%

 

Debt

65%

 

 

 

 

WACC

6.3642500%

 

Table 3. Calculation of returns based on DCF valuation

 

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Capacity in MWs

 

 

4000

4000

4000

4000

Production in MWh

 

 

31536000

31536000

31536000

31536000

Price

 

 

30.53

32.0166667

32.657

33.31014

Revenue

 

 

962794080

1009677600

1029871152

1050468575

Expense

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fuel (Pg. 6 reduction 5%)

 

 

494326800

494326800

494326800

494326800

O&M Expense (Pg. 6 reduction 10%)

 

 

99338400

99338400

99338400

99338400

Depreciation (Pg. 5 reduction 25%)

 

 

49905720

49905720

49905720

49905720

Tota Expense

 

 

643570920

643570920

643570920

643570920

Gross Profit

 

 

319223160

366106680

386300232

406897655

Interest Expense

 

 

100599840

100599840

100599840

100599840

Profit Before tax

 

 

218623320

265506840

285700392

306297815

Tax Rate

 

 

83076861.6

100892599

108566149

116393170

Net Income

 

 

135546458

164614241

177134243

189904645

Operating Cash flow

 

 

185452178

214519961

227039963

239810365

Capex ( for 4 plants)

125000000

125000000

125000000

125000000

 

 

FCF

-125000000

-125000000

60452178.4

89519960.8

227039963

239810365

Terminal value

 

 

 

 

 

109897630

Total FCF

₹ -1250,00,000

-125000000

60452178.4

89519960.8

227039963

349707995

NPV

₹ 3195,71,037.80

 

 

 

 

 

IRR

35%

 

 

 

 

 

...

...

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