Comformation Bias

An Nguyen

Shinichi Evans

English 101

18 March 2017

Confirmation Bias

             Before we make decision, we often think that we are reasonable and likely review a lot of information available to us. However, what we don't realize sometimes is that a lot of our decisions have flaws, and most of them are affected by a series of bias.  One of them is known as confirmation bias.  This is error occurs when you believe something is right, you'll just take to find the evidence to support a theory or thought.  The confirmation bias makes our brain lack in decision even though the human brain is so powerful. For example, if you started with the hypothesis that inflation galloping is imminent, you will tend to read a lot of those same documents point to prove his point is true instead of more reference information.  How does confirmation bias affect our decisions?

According to David McRaney” Confirmation bias is seeing the world through filter” (McRaney, 28). We use normally the information around us that supports the view of the decision we already have and when we encounter information, we pay more attention to it, remember it better, and use it to build further support for our beliefs.  For example,  McRaney believes “if you are thing about buying a particular make of new car, you suddenly see people driving that car all over the roads.  If you just ended a longtime relationship, every song you hear seems to be written about love.  If you are having a baby, you start to see babies everywhere” (McRaney, 28).  In other example, Internet is a particularly fertile ground for confirmation bias. For up to date information, we visit website, blog that help us to get information we need.  However, the most people believe information is truth from a certain source and they do not confirm again with other sources.  Their decisions might incorrect base on this information.

 In some major decision, confirmation bias is cause of mistake decision. “The real trouble begins when confirmation bias distorts your active pursuit of facts” (McRaney, 28).  I strongly agree with McRaney about trouble of your major decision which is caused by confirmation bias in business field.  Confirmation bias can create problems for investors. When investment research, someone can accidentally find information to support their beliefs about an investment and they do not see information that presents different ideas. The result is a one-dimensional perspective of the situation. Confirmation bias so could cause investors to make poor decisions, whether it is in their choice of investment or the time of their purchase and sale.  For example, suppose an investor who heard a rumor that a company is on the verge of bankruptcy.  Based on that information, the investor will consider selling shares. When he went online to read the latest news about the company, he tends to just read the stories that confirmed bankruptcy scenario has the ability and he remembered a story about the company's new product just put that is expected to operate very well. Instead of holding stocks, he sold it at a substantial loss just before it turns around and climbs a high level.  Moreover, the confirmation bias can lead us to illusion in our mind as in the area of belief religion “the researchers concluded most people engage in magical thinking to some degree, assuming their thoughts can influence things outside of their control” ( McRaney, 280).

                   In religion, confirmation bias make people to have faith in God, they began to explain various worldly events. People attribute good things that happened to the will of God, but the things are not bad. For example, one can hold God responsible for those rescued from a disaster, but the idea that God could have caused the disaster in the first place cannot even crossed their mind .Without confirmation bias, the views of the people of God can be much more complex. But because they are not considered adverse events or good things happen to bad people is the responsibility of God, and feel good things come from God, every good thing that happens to support their theory that God is good. Similarly, if one's conception of God involves punishment, then adverse events attributed to God as well. For example, those who follow the trend of idealistic said that the killing of thousands of buffalo to serve spiritual purposes is not recommended because they are also living organisms, also think and act. Therefore, what the people of Nepal are suffering the curse was the retribution, karma is inevitable.  Additionally, according to three Simple Truths about Terror, Religion, and Islam by Clay Farris Naff some people or terrorist organize are taking advantage of blind faith in religion of some people to personal gain or cause terrorist attacks “So, the truth about Islam: It’s just another religion. By that I mean it can serve as the justification for the most depraved, heartless acts imaginable — slavery, rape, mutilation, genocide, and, yes, suicide bombing, to name a few” (Simple Truths about Terror, Religion, and Islam) and the terrorist attacks on 11th September proved to be the illusion of terrorism has caused the loss and suffering to the people love freedom and peace in United State.

...